Oman setzt Schwerpunkt auf "human development" und wirtschaftliche Diversifizierung

Im Jahr 2013 setzt die Regierung Omans ihre Schwerpunkte bei Bildung, Gesundheit und Beschäftigung. So sollen 56.000 Arbeitsplätze bereitgestellt werden. Dem wachsenden Interesse an gesellschaftlicher Verantwortung soll durch eine zunehmende Konzentration auf Bildung und Gesundheitsversorgung Rechnung getragen werden.

 

Oman Budget 2013: Emphasis on human development, economic diversification

 

Despite major global challenges and changing geopolitical scenarios, the sultanate continues with its prudent expansionary monetary policy. This is in line with the 'Oman 2020’ vision, which aims at economic diversification and supplementing sources of revenue, despite the challenges faced in maintaining high growth rates, controlling inflation, lowering debt levels, and managing volatility in oil prices.

 

The main points of the budget reflect the government's focus areas, including employment for the national workforce through the provision of 56,000 jobs in 2013, in addition to the growing interest in social responsibility by increasing focus on education and healthcare. The budget also focuses on attracting local and foreign investment in the private sector, supporting growth of the small and medium enterprise (SME) sector, and setting up new industrial zones.

 

An analysis of revenue in the 2013 budget shows expected growth in revenues of 26.7 per cent on a year-on-year basis (the highest yearly rise in estimated budgets) to RO11.15bn, compared to RO8.8bn in the 2012 budget. Actual revenues in 2012 were approximately RO14bn, an increase of 59 per cent from the estimated figures.

 

The contribution of oil and gas revenue in the 2013 budget indicates the continued significance of the sector to the economy. Oil and gas revenues constitute 84 per cent of total revenues (around 82 per cent in 2012) and are expected at RO9.35bn, an increase of 30 per cent over the estimated revenues in the 2012 budget (RO7.2bn). Oil revenues are seen at RO8bn, constituting 72 per cent of total revenues (69 per cent in 2012 budget), a notable increase of 32 per cent over the estimated oil revenues in 2012 budget. This shows why the government spent RO1bn on developing the oil industry to achieve production levels of 1mn barrels per day by 2015.

 

In the first ten months of 2012, the contribution of oil revenues was 74 per cent to total revenues, as compared to the targeted 69 per cent contribution as per the 2012 budget. The contribution of gas revenues stabilised at 12 per cent of total revenues at RO1.3bn (slightly below the 2011 and 2012 contribution of 13 per cent).

 

Current revenues from taxes, fees and other non-tax revenues, at RO1.78bn amounted to 15.9 per cent of total revenues in the 2013 budget (around 17.8 per cent in estimated budget of 2012 and 14.65 per cent actual in the first ten months of 2012).

 

It is also worth noting that oil revenue's contribution in the sultanate’s GDP was 45 per cent in 2012, whereas 55 per cent came from other and non-oil activities.

 

Oil

 

There is no doubt that the average price of US$85 per barrel used to tabulate the 2013 budget (up 13.3 per cent from the 2012 budget’s US$75) is unquestionably a record and non-discretionary in general, especially in light of the rapid changes in the global area and factors affecting supply and demand.

 

Discussing the wage bill, the Minister Responsible for Financial Affairs, H E Darwish Ismail al Balushi, said that wages drain US$45 of oil revenues while oil production expenses stood at US$22 and only US$20 is left to cover various projects. In spite of this, there is a reason for trusting the wisdom and logic used by the government for the price of oil.

 

This reason relates to the sultanate's current performance and expected oil prices, which despite all the challenges facing the global economy, are expected to remain above US$100, even in the most pessimistic of scenarios.

 

Given the nature of the importers, led by China, which accounted for 50 per cent of the total exports during the first ten months of 2012, according to the latest bulletin issued by the National Center for Statistics and Information (NCSI), strong demand for Oman’s oil is expected to continue.

 

Global reports indicate that Chinese oil demand will grow 3.4 per cent on an annual basis through 2013, and while this is modest compared to previous years, it is enough to make China the largest contributor to global oil demand.

 

Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted in its latest report that global demand for oil would rise by 865,000 barrels per day in 2013, thus making the global demand for oil equivalent to 90.52mn barrels per day, compared with 89.7mn barrels per day in 2012.

 

The average price of Oman oil during the first ten months of 2012 was US$109.5 per barrel, 29 per cent above than the figure used to calculate the current budget (US$85).

 

Inflation

 

As per the budget disclosure, the rate of inflation for 2012 settled at a reasonable level of three per cent, due to a retreat in the price of imported goods and government intervention. Recent data on the sultanate’s general price index (GPI) point to a three per cent increase in GPI compared to the same period last year. When compared to the increase in previous years, this remains a good indicator.

 

Due to the sultanate's dependence on imported goods (raw materials, finished goods, etc) which results in price volatility, maintaining a reasonable level of inflation will continue to be a challenge. There is an expectation of upward pressure on the level of inflation due to several factors like expansionary government spending, increased consumer demand due to increased arrival of foreigners to the local market, and volatility in foreign currencies especially the Japanese yen and the US dollar, etc.

 

In spite of this, the International Monetary Fund estimates the sultanate's inflation rate to be stable at current levels or rise only marginally.

 

Budget at a glance

 

Estimated total revenue at RO11.15bn, up by nearly 27 per cent on a yearly basis, of which 84 per cent is contributed by oil and gas (81.8 per cent budgeted for 2012) at RO9.35bn (an increase of approximately 30 per cent compared to the estimated budget for 2012, which was at RO7.2bn). It is also worth noting that actual revenues for 2012 amounted to RO14bn as per the budget announcement, ie. an increase of 59 per cent against the original budget.

 

• Average oil production of 930,000 barrels per day in 2013 representing an increase of 1.6 per cent compared to the estimated figure in 2012 of 915,000 barrels. During the first ten months of 2012, average production was 913,000 barrels per day.
• The budget is built on the basis of average oil price of US$85 per barrel, an increase of US$10 from the assumed price in the 2012 budget. However the average actual price registered during the first ten months of 2012 was about US$109.5 per barrel, 29 per cent above the figure estimated in the 2013 budget.
• Estimated total expenditure at RO12.9bn, an increase of 29 per cent compared to the original budgeted figure of RO10bn in 2012 and slightly lower than the actual expenditure in 2012, which stood at RO13bn as per the budget statement. Current expenditure continues to dominate government spending with 63 per cent (64.5 per cent in 2012) at RO8.1bn, including 50 per cent expenditure for civilian ministries.
• Investment expenditure constitutes 24.5 per cent of government expenditure followed by participation and subsidy to private sector at 12.3 per cent (RO1.6bn). Participation and subsidy to the private sector is higher by around 87.6 per cent on a yearly basis compared with the 2012 budgeted figure.
• Education and health continue to be focus areas receiving 10.4 per cent and four per cent share, respectively, of govt spending plans.
• RO1.7bn is the expected deficit (the highest among historical budgets), up 41.7 per cent compared with 2012 original budgeted figures and represents 15.2 per cent of the estimated revenue and five per cent of the estimated gross domestic product for 2013, as per the budget statement.
• According to the budget statement, the total value of the most important new projects scheduled to be implemented during 2013 is around RO1.1bn of which 51 per cent is for roads, airports and ports.
• Total expenditure will continue to increase in the 8th Five-Year Plan to reach RO58bn compared with the original RO42.7bn, an increase of more than 35 per cent.